Hurricane Season in Bucerias, Mexico: Did We Dodge Another Bullet?
Every year here in Bucerías, Mexico, we anticipate the arrival of our warm, wet summers. Along with the rain, humidity and beautiful green landscapes comes something we always have to keep an eye on: hurricane season.
Officially, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May through November, but here in Bahía de Banderas, September and October are often the months when we pay particularly close attention to what's developing offshore.
And every year is a little different.
Over the past month, we've watched several hurricanes develop in the Pacific Ocean south of Mexico, including Polo and Rachel. Fortunately, neither appeared particularly likely to make a direct impact on our area.
But then came Hurricane Simon.
And for a while, things were looking pretty concerning.
Hurricane Simon Heads Toward Bahía de Banderas
As Hurricane Simon developed in the Pacific, its projected trajectory began pointing toward our region. Puerto Vallarta, Bucerías, Punta de Mita, San Pancho and several other coastal communities appeared to be directly in its path. For those of us living here, it was a situation we couldn't ignore. But even before Simon became a serious concern, something unusual had already been happening along our coastline.
The Kelvin Wave Phenomenon: Why Our Beaches Were Already Disappearing
In the weeks leading up to Hurricane Simon, we began experiencing unusually high ocean levels and powerful waves along our beaches. One possible contributing factor was an oceanic phenomenon known as a Kelvin wave.
Oceanic Kelvin waves are large-scale waves that travel through the ocean, often along the equator or coastlines. They can influence sea levels and are particularly associated with changes in ocean conditions during El Niño events.
Unlike the waves we normally see breaking along the beach, these aren't necessarily visible as individual waves. Instead, they can cause the ocean's surface to rise over a much larger area. Depending on the strength and location of the event, coastal sea levels can rise by several centimeters or, in stronger cases, several tens of centimeters.
That might not sound like much, but when you're talking about an entire ocean pushing farther inland, even a relatively small increase in water levels can make a significant difference.
Especially when combined with high tides and powerful hurricane-generated swells.
I should mention that I'm certainly no oceanographer. I'm simply sharing what I've been learning and observing along our coastline. The precise contribution of a Kelvin wave to the conditions we experienced here would require scientific confirmation.
But whatever combination of factors was responsible, the changes to some of our beaches were impossible to ignore.
San Pancho: A Beach Transformed
On Thursday, October 8, I visited the coastal town of San Pancho, Nayarit, just north of Sayulita.
Normally, San Pancho has a beautiful, expansive beach with plenty of room for visitors to relax, enjoy the ocean and visit the beachfront restaurants. But what I witnessed that day was dramatically different.
In areas where there had previously been approximately 50 meters of sandy beach, the ocean was now reaching almost all the way to the beachfront plaza.
The waves were crashing much farther inland than what we're accustomed to seeing.
One beachfront restaurant, La Perla, had already suffered devastating damage.
Nearby, the owners and employees of Las Palmas were actively preparing for the possibility of even worse conditions, placing sandbags and doing whatever they could to protect their business.
And at that point, Hurricane Simon hadn't even arrived.
With the storm potentially heading directly toward our coastline, we were concerned about what might happen if the already elevated ocean levels were combined with even larger hurricane-generated waves.
It was shaping up to be a potentially dangerous combination.
Preparing for the Worst
By Friday, October 9, preparations were well underway throughout Bahía de Banderas.
Schools were closed, businesses began boarding up windows, and residents were securing outdoor furniture, placing sandbags and stocking up on supplies.
As Saturday arrived, Hurricane Simon had intensified into a powerful Category 4 hurricane.
And with the storm approaching from the south, we were preparing for the possibility of a direct impact.
There was a real sense of uncertainty throughout the community.
We went to sleep Saturday night expecting that Sunday could be a very difficult day for Bucerías and the surrounding towns.
But when I woke up the following morning, something had changed.
Sunday Morning: A Welcome Change in Direction
Early Sunday morning, I opened my Windy weather app to check Hurricane Simon's latest projected trajectory.
And I immediately noticed something encouraging. Instead of continuing northward through Bahía de Banderas, the forecast showed Simon tracking farther northwest, remaining offshore.
I checked several additional weather sources, including official hurricane forecasts, and confirmed that the projected track had indeed shifted.
It was an enormous relief.
Rather than experiencing the destructive winds we had been preparing for, conditions here in Bucerías remained relatively peaceful. We experienced rain, cloudy skies and some gusty conditions, but nothing resembling the devastating impact we had feared.
Of course, the ocean was another story. Powerful waves continued to pound our beaches, and authorities warned residents and visitors to stay away from the shoreline.
But as far as the town itself was concerned, we appeared to have avoided the worst of Hurricane Simon.
And for that, we were incredibly grateful.
Monday: Hurricane Simon's Powerful Waves Arrive in Bucerias
By Monday, October 12, Hurricane Simon was moving roughly parallel to our coastline, and although we had been spared a direct hit, we were finally beginning to feel some of its force right here in Bucerías. Powerful swells began entering Bahía de Banderas, sending big waves crashing onto our beaches.
Normally, the waters here in Bucerías are relatively calm. It's one of the things that makes our beaches so enjoyable for swimming, paddleboarding and simply relaxing in the ocean. But on this particular Monday, the ocean was anything but calm.
Wave after wave came crashing onto the shoreline, creating a spectacle that attracted plenty of curious onlookers. People gathered along the waterfront to witness the incredible power of the ocean for themselves, and it really was quite a sight to see.
With the powerful hurricane-generated swells arriving during a period of unusually elevated ocean levels, potentially influenced by the Kelvin wave phenomenon, the waves were breaking much farther up the beach than normal.
Authorities instructed people to stay off the beaches, and frankly, even without those warnings, it was pretty obvious that conditions were dangerous. The sheer power and frequency of the waves made it clear that this was not a day for a casual swim.
But interestingly enough, not everyone was disappointed by the rough ocean conditions. For local surfers, the unusual swell presented a rare opportunity. Bucerías isn't generally known as a surfing destination. Our relatively calm waters don't typically produce the kinds of waves surfers are looking for. But during certain storms and tidal conditions, that can change dramatically. And on Monday, a handful of surfers took advantage of the opportunity to catch some waves right here in Bucerías.
Of course, these were exceptionally hazardous conditions, and the presence of surfers certainly didn't mean the beaches were safe for everyone else.
As I watched the ocean, I couldn't help but think about a conversation I'd had with a local Bucerías legend named Alfredo. He shared a simple piece of wisdom that really stuck with me: "Sometimes it's best to step aside, scoot over, and let Jimmy take over."
For Alfredo, Jimmy is a reference to Jesus. And I think there's something meaningful in that sentiment, regardless of your personal beliefs. We can prepare our homes, secure our belongings, board up our windows and do everything possible to protect ourselves and our families. And we absolutely should. But ultimately, powerful storms like these are beyond our control.
Sometimes, after we've done everything we reasonably can, all that's left is to have faith, hope for the best and let nature take its course. And after witnessing the incredible power of the Pacific Ocean that Monday, Alfredo's words seemed particularly fitting.
The Resilience of Our Coastal Communities
Having lived in this region for many years, I've witnessed firsthand just how destructive hurricanes can be. Two storms that immediately come to mind are Hurricanes Roslyn and Lidia. These storms brought powerful winds, heavy rainfall and significant damage to parts of Mexico's Pacific coast. But something I've always admired about the communities here is how people respond when disaster strikes.
When a storm passes and the damage becomes apparent, people don't sit around waiting for someone else to fix everything. Neighbors come outside to help one another.
People begin clearing debris, cleaning streets, repairing damage and checking on those who might need assistance. It's something I've witnessed repeatedly over the years.
The people here are incredibly hardworking, resilient and resourceful. And when faced with adversity, there's a real sense of community that makes me proud to call this place home.
Thankfully, this time around, we didn't have to experience the kind of destruction we had been preparing for. At least, not here in Bucerías.
But that doesn't necessarily mean hurricane season is finished with us.
Another Storm Developing in the Pacific?
Just as Hurricane Simon began moving away from our immediate area, forecasters started monitoring another tropical disturbance developing farther south in the Pacific.
If this system strengthens into a named tropical storm, the next name on the Eastern Pacific list is Trudy.
It's still far too early to know whether this system will pose any threat to Bahía de Banderas.
And although it may initially follow a general west-northwest movement similar to other storms we've seen this season, that doesn't mean it will follow Simon's exact path.
We'll have to wait and see how it develops.
In the meantime, I think we'll leave the outdoor furniture and decorations safely tucked away for a little while longer.
No sense putting everything back just to take it all down again!
Thank You for Following Along
Finally, I want to thank everyone who has been following our hurricane coverage over the past several days. We've received so many thoughtful messages, well wishes and prayers from people around the world.
We genuinely appreciate it.
And while I'm not sure we can take credit for convincing Hurricane Simon to change direction, we're certainly grateful that things turned out the way they did!
For now, Bucerías appears to have escaped the worst of Simon, although we're continuing to monitor the storm and the developing tropical system farther south.
If there are any important updates, we'll share them on our Moving to Mexico YouTube channel and our Moving to Mexico Facebook page.
Thank you again for following along, and from all of us here in Bucerías, stay safe!
Paul & DanielaBeachLife Properties | Bucerías, Nayarit, Mexico
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